The Polling Problem
Ever wonder why the polls keep getting it wrong? Maybe it’s because they measure what people say, not what they do.
The Gap Between Words and Actions
“People don’t do what they say they believe, they do what’s convenient and then they repent.” – Rory Sutherland
The Illusion of Polling Accuracy
Polling is an essential tool, but it’s not a crystal ball. The problem? Voters often misrepresent their intentions—sometimes even to themselves.
Behavioral science shows that voter decisions are influenced by context, emotions, and social pressure. This means:
- Social Desirability Bias: People say what they think sounds good, not what they actually plan to do.
- Last-Minute Shifts: Events, conversations, and emotions sway choices at the voting booth.
- Turnout Uncertainty: Even strong supporters sometimes fail to show up on Election Day.
How Smart Campaigns Adapt
Winning campaigns don’t just analyze polling averages; they focus on influencing the moments that matter:
✅ Message Framing: Make it easy for voters to act on their preferences.
✅ Behavioral Nudges: Reminders, peer pressure, and urgency increase turnout.
✅ Real-Time Sentiment Tracking: Go beyond polls—monitor voter reactions as they happen.
Shape the Outcome
Winning campaigns don’t chase the polls—they shape them. Let’s craft a message that moves voters from intention to action.
Reach out to Next Generation Political Consulting today.
